Jamaica Climate
Enhancing farming through weather and climate information!

  

Jamaica Fruits

Climate Branch / Meteorological Service

 

SEPTEMBER 2016 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

 

Brief Summary:  Through the period of July to September the computer models are indicating normal to above normal in rainfall amount across most areas. As temperatures remain warmer than normal over much of the Caribbean and western Atlantic over the three months, rainfall activities seems likely to be near normal to above normal due to favourable environmental and local factors. 

The forecast for July remains near normal, however as we approach the months of August and September the models are indicating an increase in rainfall amounts as we enter into the peak of the Hurricane season. Although we are predicting a slight decline in rainfall especially for July the impact on agricultural areas, especially over southern parishes are not expected to be significant. However, we will continue to monitor the findings from the models in order to advise our farming communities should the situation change and warrant action on their part. Temperature predictions remain above normal over most areas across the island.  

 
To view our 3D drought maps use the following browsers with 3D plugin: 
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September 2016 drought map for Jamaica 
 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories

SPI Values 

 Near Normally Drying  (40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4 

Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7 

Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2 

Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5 

Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9 

Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less 

Categories

SPI Values 

Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4 

Abnormally Wetness (70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7 

Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2 

Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5 

Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9 

Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more 

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.