Jamaica Climate
Enhancing farming through weather and climate information!

  

Jamaica Fruits

Climate Branch / Meteorological Service

 

JULY 2016 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

 

Brief Summary:  Through the period of May to July the computer models are indicating a sharp decline in rainfall amount across most areas, especially towards the end of July. As we approach the end of the secondary rainfall season, rainfall activities seems likely to decline to near normal to below normal due to several environmental and local factors.   

The forecast for May remains near normal, however as we approached the June to July period estimated sharp declines in rainfall amount could negatively affect key agricultural areas, especially over southern parishes. Therefore, we are advising that plans be made to reduce any possible impacts that could result from an extensive decline in rainfall.

 
To view our Google Earth 3D drought maps use the following link listed below to download our image files:  
 
*Google Earth need to be install on your PC* 
 
 
  
July 2016 drought forecast map   
 
 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories

SPI Values 

 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4 

Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7 

Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2 

Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5 

Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9 

Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less 

Categories

SPI Values 

Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4 

Abnormally Wetness (70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7 

Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2 

Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5 

Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9 

Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more 

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.