September Drought Forecast Map

SEPTEMBER 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  With global temperatures being among the warmest on record so far in 2017, the forecast for the upcoming three months, indicates warmer than normal temperatures along with the likelihood of above-normal rainfall over most sections of the island. The latest forecast from the computer models is indicating a 45% probability of above-normal rainfall activity across most stations. As sea-surface temperatures continue to rise across the region, rainfall activities are likely to remain near to above-average.

Over the past three months (April-June) the island recorded significant increases in rainfall amounts over all parishes. This was enough to offset the deficit in rainfall that was observed over most central and western parishes during the first few months of the year.

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SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Drying (40%tile)  0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)  0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more