October Drought Forecast Map

OCTOBER 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary: The forecast for the upcoming three months, indicates warmer than normal temperatures along with the likelihood of above-normal rainfall over most sections of the island. The latest forecast from the computer models is indicating a 40% probability of above-normal rainfall activity across most stations. As temperatures continue to rise across the region, rainfall activities are also likely to remain above-average.

Over the past three months (May-July) preliminary rainfall totals collected for the period were above normal for most stations. This was enough to offset any deficit in rainfall that was observed over sections of the island during the first few months of the year.

To view our 3D drought maps use the following browsers with 3D plugin:

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  • Google Earth need to be install on your PC 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying

(40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness

(60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.