November Drought Forecast Map


Brief Summary:  As we go into the peak of the primary rainfall season, the forecast for the upcoming three month period, indicates near-normal to above-normal rainfall over most sections of the island. The latest forecast from the computer models is indicating a 40% probability of above-normal rainfall activity across most stations. As temperatures trend higher than previous years across the region, the island is likely to remain warmer than normal, especially over built up areas of eastern and central parishes.

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SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying


 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry


-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought


-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought


-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought


-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought


-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness


 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness


0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness


0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness


1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness


1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness


2.0 or more

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.