January Drought Forecast Map

JANUARY 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  Over the next three months the most stations that were examined could receive near normal to above normal rainfall based on the latest outlook from the computer models. Although some areas especially, over eastern parishes are likely to experience below normal rainfall the concerns for drought impact remains low as we are still in the rainy season.  

The forecast for November to January indicates moderate chance of increased rainfall amounts as environmental conditions remain favourable. Rainfall amounts over the next three months are likely to remain near normal to above normal thus significantly reducing the likelihood of drought concerns at this time.

To view our Google Earth 3D drought maps use the following link listed below to download our image files:  

Google Earth need to be install on your PC 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying

(40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile)

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness

(60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.