December Drought Forecast Map

DECEMBER 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary: Through the period of October to December, the forecast from the Climate Predictability Tool indicates, near-normal to above-normal rainfall over most sections of the island. The latest forecast from the computer models is indicating a 40% probability of above-normal rainfall and 35% probability of near-normal activity across most stations. As temperatures continue to trend higher than previous years across the region, temperatures across the island are likely to remain warmer than normal.

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SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying

(40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness

(60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile)

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile)

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more

 

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.