April Drought Forecast Map

APRIL 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  The rainfall outlook for February to April 2017 indicates a general pattern of below normal rainfall for most areas examined during the period. At the end of December rainfall amounts across western parishes have declined significantly and on the current projections this decline especially for the parishes of Hanover and Westmoreland are likely to continue during the period.

Rainfall activity will be closely monitored for southern and western parishes over the next three months to ensure that critical and sensitive sectors such as agriculture which depends heavily on rainfall can adjust plans as necessary in order to handle possible shortfall in water availability.

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SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

Categories SPI Values 
 Near Normally Drying

(40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile)

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness

(60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile)

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more

 

Near normal drying and Abnormally Dry …are used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought

Near normal wetness and Abnormally wetness …are used for areas recovering from drought.