Drought Forecast Map

DECEMBER 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  Through the period of October to December, the forecast from the Climate Predictability Tool indicates, near-normal to above-normal rainfall over most sections of the island. The latest forecast from the computer models is indicating a 40% probability of above-normal rainfall and 35% probability of near-normal activity across most stations. As temperatures continue to trend higher than previous years across the region, temperatures across the island are likely to remain warmer than normal.

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SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Drying

(40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4
Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7
Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2
Severe Drought

(10%tile)

-1.3 to -1.5
Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9
Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less
Categories SPI Values 
Near Normally Wetness

(60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4
Abnormally Wetness

(70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7
Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2
Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5
Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9
Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more