Jamaica Climate
Enhancing farming through weather and climate information!

  

Jamaica Fruits

Climate Branch / Meteorological Service

 

JULY 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  As we look at the upcoming three months, there will be a noticeable shift in the environmental conditions. Scientists are predicting that over the coming months a shift towards warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific could see a weak El Ni ño forming. 

This phenomenon could impact climatic and weather conditions across Jamaica, resulting in warmer than normal temperatures as well as reduced rainfall activity. The latest forecast from the computer models are indicating a probability of below normal to near normal rainfall activity across most stations.

 To view our 3D drought maps use the following browsers with 3D plugin: 

Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox

 *Google Earth need to be install on your PC* 

 
 
   July drought map
 
 

JUNE 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

 

Brief Summary:  As we enter into what is considered the secondary rainfall season, the forecasts are indicating near normal to below normal rainfall across most stations. During Jan-Mar, drought affected sections of some western and central parishes due to steady declines in rainfall amounts.

However, with current projections now indicating a decline in rainfall over the next three months, there is a possibility that this could lead to more widespread occurrence of drought as well as worsened drought conditions in areas which were already reporting drought.

Jamaica June Drought Map
 
 
 
 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories

SPI Values 

 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4 

Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7 

Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2 

Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5 

Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9 

Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less 

Categories

SPI Values 

Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4 

Abnormally Wetness (70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7 

Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2 

Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5 

Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9 

Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more