Jamaica Climate
Enhancing farming through weather and climate information!

  

Jamaica Fruits

Climate Branch / Meteorological Service

 

AUGUST 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

Brief Summary:  The forecast for the next three month is for warmer than normal temperatures with above normal rainfall likely over sections of eastern and central parishes. The latest forecast from the computer models are indicating a probability of near normal to above normal rainfall activity across most stations. Rainfall activities are not likely to have significant declines in amounts, even as scientists continue to monitor the sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific for El Ni  ño development in the coming months.

Over the past three months (March, April and May) the island recorded significant increases in rainfall amounts, which offset the deficit in rainfall that was observed over most central and western parishes during period of December through to February.

 To view our 3D drought maps use the following browsers with 3D plugin: 

Google Chrome or Mozilla Firefox

 *Google Earth need to be install on your PC* 

 
 
 August 2017 drought map  
 
 

JULY 2017 SPI DROUGHT FORECAST FOR JAMAICA

 

Brief Summary:  As we look at the upcoming three months, there will be a noticeable shift in the environmental conditions. Scientists are predicting that over the coming months a shift towards warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over the eastern Pacific could see a weak El Ni ño forming. 

This phenomenon could impact climatic and weather conditions across Jamaica, resulting in warmer than normal temperatures as well as reduced rainfall activity. The latest forecast from the computer models are indicating a probability of below normal to near normal rainfall activity across most stations.

 
July drought map
 
 
 
 

SPI Data Used In Jamaica Drought Monitor

 

Categories

SPI Values 

 Near Normally Drying (40%tile)

 0.0 to -0.4 

Abnormally Dry

(30%tile)

-0.5 to -0.7 

Moderate Drought

(20%tile) 

-0.8 to -1.2 

Severe Drought

(10%tile) 

-1.3 to -1.5 

Extreme Drought

(5%tile) 

-1.6 to -1.9 

Exceptional Drought

(2%tile)

-2.0 or less 

Categories

SPI Values 

Near Normally Wetness (60%tile)

 0.0 to 0.4 

Abnormally Wetness (70%tile)

0.5 to 0.7 

Moderate Wetness

(80%tile) 

0.8 to 1.2 

Severe Wetness

(90%tile) 

1.3 to 1.5 

Extreme Wetness

(95%tile) 

1.6 to 1.9 

Exceptional Wetness

(98%tile)

2.0 or more